Dow Holds Up While the Nasdaq Keeps Bleeding

The cleanest read on Friday's session is that Wall Street still isn't done repricing the AI trade. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 0.46% to 51,947.25 and the S&P 500 added 0.05% to 7,411.98, but the Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.64% to 24,975.82 as semiconductor names remained under pressure after a bruising week for growth stocks. AP, Investopedia, Barron's

That left the market with a clear internal split going into the new week. Blue chips and more defensive pockets found buyers as oil eased from its highs, but traders kept cutting exposure to the most crowded AI and chip names. Reuters described Friday's move as another session where investors sold chip stocks on worries about massive artificial,intelligence spending ahead of the next round of megacap earnings. Reuters via StreetInsider

Apple Rose, Intel Sank, and the Chip Trade Stayed on the Defensive

Apple was one of the session's standout winners, rising 3.53% to $333.02 ahead of this week's earnings report. That helped prop up the Dow and muted some of the pressure on the broader market even as tech leadership narrowed. Yahoo Finance, FinanceCharts

Intel told the opposite story. Shares fell roughly 8% on Friday even after the company posted better,than,expected quarterly results and strong revenue growth, a classic sell,the,news reaction in a market that has become far less forgiving on spending plans and execution risk. CNBC said Intel's revenue jumped 25%, its fastest growth in almost 15 years, yet the stock still sank. CNBC, Motley Fool

The broader chip complex stayed heavy. Reuters said Nasdaq lagged as investors sold semiconductor stocks on concern over how much hyperscalers are spending on AI infrastructure and whether the returns will justify it. That's the real market question this week for Microsoft, Meta, Amazon and Apple. Reuters via StreetInsider, CNBC

Treasury Yields Stay Elevated Ahead of Warsh's Fed Test

Bonds are still flashing caution. The benchmark 10,year Treasury yield finished July 24 at 4.69%, while the 2,year ended at 4.33%, according to market snapshots based on Treasury data. The absolute level matters because it keeps pressure on long,duration growth trades even when equities try to stabilize. Advisor Perspectives, Federal Reserve

Reuters reported on Friday that the recent bond selloff had pushed longer,dated yields to their highest levels since the financial crisis era, with the 10,year touching 4.71% on Thursday and the 2,year climbing to 4.37% at recent highs. That has revived talk that the Fed may need to stay restrictive for longer, or at least sound less comfortable about inflation risks after the oil shock. Reuters via Kitco

All of that puts Wednesday's Fed decision at the center of the week. Markets will also parse Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference for any sign that the central bank is leaning toward another hike, or simply acknowledging that higher oil and sticky prices have tightened the margin for cuts. Schaeffer's

Oil Pulled Back Friday, Then Dropped Harder Monday on Iran Pause Headlines

Crude was the macro valve on Friday. Brent hovered a little above $100 a barrel late in the week before retreating, while WTI slipped toward the low $90s. Reuters said Friday's decline still left oil on track for a hefty weekly rise because traders remained worried about Red Sea disruptions and broader Middle East escalation. Reuters via MSN, Markets.com

The more important development for today's setup came over the weekend. Reuters reported Monday that Wall Street futures rose after the U.S. and Iran announced a pause in hostilities, sending oil prices sharply lower. That matters immediately for airlines, cruise lines, transports and the inflation trade more broadly. Delta rose 2.6% and American Airlines 3% in premarket trading, according to Reuters. Reuters via U.S. News

For traders, the takeaway is simple: if crude keeps unwinding, some of last week's inflation scare can reverse quickly. If the geopolitical pause proves fragile, energy and defense could regain leadership just as fast.

Gold Stayed Firm, Crypto Stayed Soft

Gold remained elevated even as it wobbled around yields and geopolitical headlines. Spot gold for July 24 was quoted around $4,090 an ounce by bullion trackers, with other daily market summaries showing the metal still holding above $4,050. That says safe,haven demand hasn't fully gone away, even with equities trying to steady. GoldPrice.org, USA Today

Crypto was less resilient. Bitcoin was around $64,148 late Friday, down about 0.6% over 24 hours, while CoinDesk reported it had slipped back below $64,000 as stocks gave up early gains. Ethereum also pulled back as rising Treasury yields and weaker risk appetite hit speculative assets. Investing News, CoinDesk

Unless bitcoin can reclaim momentum with help from lower oil and softer yields, crypto looks more like a passenger of macro than a driver right now.

This Week's Real Catalysts: Fed, GDP, PCE and Megacap Earnings

The calendar gets much heavier from here. CNBC flagged this as one of the most important weeks of the summer, with Microsoft, Meta and Qualcomm due Wednesday, followed by Apple and Amazon on Thursday. After Alphabet's capex commentary helped unsettle the market, investors now want hard evidence that AI spending is translating into durable revenue and margin upside. CNBC, Schaeffer's

Macro is just as important. The Fed announces policy on Wednesday, Q2 GDP is due Thursday, and inflation data in the form of PCE is due Friday. In a market already rattled by higher yields and oil, those releases could either validate last week's de,risking or set up a relief rally if growth moderates without a fresh inflation shock. Schaeffer's, Econoday

What to Watch Today

Oil after the reported U.S.,Iran pause. A sustained drop in crude would ease inflation fears and support transports, airlines and consumer,sensitive names. Reuters via U.S. News
Nasdaq leadership. Watch whether semis stabilize or whether Friday's chip selling spreads again into software and hyperscalers.
Treasury yields. The 10,year near 4.69% remains a pressure point for growth valuations. Advisor Perspectives
Fed setup. Traders will keep positioning ahead of Wednesday's FOMC decision and Chair Warsh's press conference. Schaeffer's
Big Tech earnings risk. Microsoft and Meta on Wednesday, Apple and Amazon on Thursday are the market's next reality check on AI spending and cloud demand. CNBC
Macro data later in the week, especially Q2 GDP on Thursday and PCE inflation on Friday, for confirmation on whether the higher,for,longer rates narrative is strengthening or starting to crack. Econoday